Monday, May 26, 2014

PIMCO, New Normal, Neutral Policy Rate

PIMCO | Investment Outlook - Achoo!: "New Normal " " . . . approximations of a neutral policy rate in a New Normal economy burdened by high debt leverage and other structural headwinds such as globalization, aging demographic influences, and technology. But I suspect these estimates which average less than 2%, are much closer to financial reality than the average, 4% “blue dot” estimates of Fed “participants,” dismissed somewhat by Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself last month. Why is this academic “Fed Fight” important to markets? Well, if a bond investor knew whether 4% or 2% was the long term neutral policy rate, he/she would literally have the key to the kingdom. Forward markets now anticipate a 4% nominal policy rate sometime out in 2020. If the neutral policy rate was 2% instead of 4% then bonds instead of being artificially priced, would be attractively priced. Instead of facing a nearly 100% certain bear market currently forecast by market mavens, bond investors could draw some comfort from a low returning yet less volatile future. Bonds would shed the “certificates of confiscation” label for yet another decade or so, as this 2% neutral policy rate delevered the economy without igniting inflationary fears...."

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Monday, May 19, 2014

Oakland Style, Antinormal (video)

Intersection: Oakland’s Style - Video - "Intersection: Oakland’s Style BY TAMIR ELTERMAN April 22nd, 2014 “People are antinormal,” Sarah Barnekow said of the style in Oakland, Calif."

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Monday, May 12, 2014

Sea-level rise, Miami (video)

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Sea-level rise of concern for Miami | News - Home: "When it comes to sea-level rise, Miami is ground zero. Salt water is encroaching and water managers are already adapting to a new normal. Pressure is mounting on elected leaders to ensure infrastructure is climate-ready, and South Florida has a lot to lose if nothing is done. On its list of 20 coastal cities most at risk from assets' exposure to coastal flooding, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ranked Miami as No. 1...."

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Monday, May 5, 2014

Millennials, Unaffordable Obamacare

Millennials on Obamacare: what do you mean, affordable? | Money | ". . . These young Americans between 18-34-years-old are, in the eyes of the White House, a crucial demographic needed in order for the Affordable Care Act to work. Yet for many of them, health insurance is one of the last things on their mind as they deal with high college debt, working part-time jobs and unsteady flow of income. Even without the additional cost of health insurance, many are already struggling to make ends meet and they can't imagine trying to pay for yet another monthly bill. "I am not an Obamacare hater," says Irina Ivanova, 28, who chronicled her experience with trying to enrol in Obamacare for Crain's New York. "But you know what it is? It feels like extortion. You have to pay this much money, or otherwise you are a bad person and you get a fine and you won't be covered if something bad happens."...

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